AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Closes with Double Digit Losses

Corn futures closed Thursday with the front months 10 to 11 1/2 cents lower. This morning’s weekly Export Sales report showed just 200,009 MT of old crop corn bookings in the week that ended on July 11. That was down 68.8% from the same week in 2018 and below trade expectations. Japan was the main buyer of 144,300 MT. New crop sales were tallied at 132,997 MT, within the range of estimates but still 82.83% below this week last year. Total corn export commitments are 15.5% below the same week last year. Compared to the USDA projection, they are 93% complete, vs. the 102% average. Most of that lag is from unshipped sales, as accumulated exports are 84% of that projection and even with the average pace. A Chinese auction of state reserves saw 522,921 MT of corn sold on Thursday, which was 13.47% of the amount offered.

SEP 19 Corn closed at $4.24 1/2, down 11 1/2 cents,

DEC 19 Corn closed at $4.29 3/4, down 11 3/4 cents,

MAR 20 Corn closed at $4.38 1/4, down 10 1/2 cents

MAY 20 Corn closed at $4.42 1/4, down 10 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans Slightly Lower on Thursday

Soybean futures ended the Thursday session with the nearby contracts 1 to 2 cents lower. August soybean meal was down 50 cents/ton, with soy oil 4 points lower. Old crop soybean sales totaled 127,890 MT during the week of July 11. That was a 10-week low and 34.1% below last year. Indonesia was the lead buyer of 123,500 MT, with net reductions of 171,100 MT for unknown destinations. New crop bookings were shown at 198,367 MT, up 53.2% wk/wk but down 67.7% yr/yr. Old crop export commitments are now 105% of USDA’s projected total vs. the 103% average. Exports are 85% of that number, with the normal pace at 83%. Soybean Meal were reported at 214,787 MT with the bulk for 19/20, as total soy oil sales were at 13,728 MT.

AUG 19 Soybeans closed at $8.81 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents,

SEP 19 Soybeans closed at $8.87, down 1 1/4 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans closed at $8.99, down 1 1/2 cents,

JAN 20 Soybeans closed at $9.11 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents,

AUG 19 Soybean Meal closed at $307.00, down $0.50,

AUG 19 Soybean Oil closed at $27.64, down $0.04

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat In the Red on Thursday

Wheat futures settled with 2 to 12 cent losses in most contracts, as CBT was the weakest and MPLS the firmest. Weakness in corn pressured the market, with the nearby KC wheat-corn spread at 8 1/4 cents. The weekly Export Sales report from FAS indicated all wheat export bookings during the week that ended on July 11 at 347,290 MT. That was on the higher end of estimates and 15.75% larger than the same week last year. Mexico was the top buyer of 166,500 MT, with South Korea at 80,000 MT. The US was left out of this week’s Japan MOA tender, with 51,821 MT split between Australia and Canada.

SEP 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.93 1/2, down 12 cents,

SEP 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.32 3/4, down 9 cents,

SEP 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.25 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle See Weakness on Thursday

Live cattle futures were down 50 to 75 cents in most nearby contracts on Thursday. Feeder cattle futures were down $1.15 to $1.35, ignoring losses in corn. The biannual Cattle Inventory will be released Friday afternoon. The dairy cow herd is expected to be smaller, with more debate about whether the beef cow herd is still expanding or contracting. The CME feeder cattle index was down $1.01 @ $140.00 on July 17. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Thursday afternoon with Choice boxes up 77 cents per cwt and Select boxes 27 cents higher. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter at 481,000 head through Thursday. That was up 3,000 head from the previous week and 7,000 larger than the same week last year. A few cattle exchanged hands at $111 in the South on Wednesday, with $113-113.50 live and $182-185 dressed in the North as reported by USDA. Beef export sales in the week of July 11 totaled 19,792 MT for 2019, with weekly shipments at 17,959 MT.

AUG 19 Cattle closed at $107.400, down $0.725,

OCT 19 Cattle closed at $108.250, down $0.50,

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $112.800, down $0.55,

AUG 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $139.425, down $1.15,

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $139.475, down $1.30,

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $139.725, down $1.35,

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Hogs Close Mostly Lower on Thursday

Lean Hog futures were lower in most contracts on Thursday, with August up 15 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 17 cents from the previous day on July 16 @ $70.79. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up another 12 cents in the Thursday PM report at $76.60. The belly primal was up $3.68 after showing $18.64/cwt gains in the AM report. The national average base hog value was up 71 cents on Thursday at $72.24. Estimated FI hog slaughter through Wednesday was 1.820 million head. That was down 94,000 head from last week due to plant down time and 24,000 head larger than the same week last year. The weekly Export Sales report showed 30,107 MT of pork sold in the week of 7/11, with Mexico at 8,800 MT and Taiwan buying 8,200 MT. Shipments were tallied at 36,761 MT, as 9,910 MT was headed to China.

AUG 19 Hogs closed at $82.775, up $0.775,

OCT 19 Hogs closed at $76.900, down $0.925,

DEC 19 Hogs closed at $75.275, down $0.45,

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Posts Losses on Thursday

Cotton futures were down 65 to 101 points in the front months on Thursday. This morning’s Export Sales report indicated that 54,034 RB of 18/19 upland cotton was sold in the week that ended on July 11. That was more than 4 times the same week last year as Vietnam bought 34,400 RB. New crop bookings were the third largest this MY 218,900 RB. That was still down 11.63% from the same week last year, with Vietnam buying 100,900 RB. Weekly shipments were shown at 310,285 RB, as just 7,641 RB went to China. That was down 6.88% from last week and 36.5% larger than the same week last year. The Cotlook A index for July 17 was down 75 points from the previous day at 74.20 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 58.05 cents/lb this week and will be updated later today.

OCT 19 Cotton closed at 60.88, down 101 points,

DEC 19 Cotton closed at 61.71, down 78 points

MAR 20 Cotton closed at 62.81, down 81 points

MAY 20 Cotton closed at 63.88, down 65 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com