AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are backing off yesterday’s modest gains, as most contracts are 1 to 1 1/2 cents lower on Thursday. The weekly EIA report showed ethanol production recovering 65,000 barrels per day to 1.061 million bpd. That is the largest week to week improvement on record. Stocks of ethanol rose just 24,000 barrels to 22.743 million barrels during the week of Jan 12. Old Crop corn export sales are seen at 500,000-800,000 MT for the week of Jan 11, with the USDA already showing private sales of 442,100 MT for that week. That report will be out tomorrow morning. A Farm Futures survey shows 18/19 corn acreage expectations of 90.1 million acres, down 100,000 acres from 17/18. The International Grains Council raised their projection for 2017/18 world corn production 14 MMT to 1.054 MMT, with increases in the EU and China. On Thursday, Taiwan purchased 65,000 MT of US corn for March-April shipment.

Mar 18 Corn is at $3.51 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents,

May 18 Corn is at $3.59 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents,

Jul 18 Corn is at $3.67 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.75 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures are trading 4 to 4 1/4 cents in the green in most nearby contracts on Thursday. Meal futures are up $3.30/ton, with nearby soy oil down 11 points. A survey of farmers by Farm Futures shows projections for the 18/19 US soybean acreage at 90.1 million acres, UNCH from a year ago. Analysts are expecting to see the first full non-Holiday week of 2018 show 0.6-1 MMT in old crop soybean export sales. There is also 0.2-0.4 MMT seen for new crop sales. During the week of Jan 11, the USDA reported private sales of 449,000 MT for old crop and 195,000 MT for new crop sales. Estimates for soy meal are at 100,000-300,000 MT, with 8,000-25,000 MT for soy oil. The USDA numbers will be out tomorrow morning.

Mar 18 Soybeans are at $9.73, up 4 1/4 cents,

May 18 Soybeans are at $9.84, up 4 cents,

Jul 18 Soybeans are at $9.93 3/4, up 4 1/4 cents,

Aug 18 Soybeans are at $9.96 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents,

Mar 18 Soybean Meal is at $327.60, up $3.30

Mar 18 Soybean Oil is at $32.40, down $0.11

Wheat

Wheat futures are mostly 2 to 3 1/2 cents higher in most KC and CBT winter wheat contracts, as MPLS spring wheat is fractionally higher in the front months. Coming off last week’s MY low, traders are expecting the USDA to show 200,000-500,000 MT in all wheat export sales for the week of Jan 11 in Friday’s Export Sales report. All wheat acres in 2018/19 are expected to climb to 46.8 million acres according to a Farm Futures survey. That is up 800,000 acres from last year, on larger spring wheat acreage. Japan purchased 24,160 MT of US wheat in their recent MOA tender that saw a total 91,733 MT purchased from Australia, Canada, and the US. The IGC now expects the 17/18 world wheat crop to total 757 MMT, up 8 MMT from their previous report.

Mar 18 CBOT Wheat is at $4.25, up 3 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 KCBT Wheat is at $4.29 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents,

Mar 18 MGEX Wheat is at $6.12 1/2, up 3/4 cent

Cattle

Live cattle futures are currently 47.5 to 85 cents higher in the front months on Thursday. Feeder cattle futures are up 82.5 to 97.5 cents. The CME feeder cattle index on January 16 was $145.01, down 37 cents from the previous day. Wholesale boxed beef values were higher on Thursday morning. Choice boxes were up 34 cents at $205.64, with Select boxes $1.38 higher at $200.99. Estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter was 353,000 head through Wednesday. That was 1,000 head fewer than last week. Cash trade so far this week has been fairly quiet, with just a few reported bids of $118. Reports late Wednesday after noon showed that Pinnacle Asset Management agreed to purchase JBS’s Five Rivers Cattle Feeding operations for $200 million.

Feb 18 Cattle are at $121.825, up $0.850,

Apr 18 Cattle are at $123.250, up $0.475,

Jun 18 Cattle are at $115.050, up $0.600,

Jan 18 Feeder Cattle are at $148.850, up $0.975

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle are at $146.750, up $0.775

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle are at $146.950, up $0.825

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures are showing slight to modest gains in the nearby contracts at midday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up $1.07 on January 16 at $72.99. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 9 cents at $80.86 in the Thursday morning report. The loin and belly primals were the only cuts reported higher. The national base hog weighted average price was down 35 cents to $69.35 Thursday morning. The USDA FI hog slaughter was estimated at 1,294,000 head through Wednesday, which is 107,000 larger than the same week last year, but 85,000 head lower than last week.

Feb 18 Hogs are at $73.075, up $0.350,

Apr 18 Hogs are at $76.000, up $0.475

May 18 Hogs are at $80.575, up $0.025

Cotton

Cotton futures are trading 60 to 68 points higher on Thursday, with support coming from a lower US dollar that had initially tried to rally. Farm Futures projects we will see 13.2 million acres of cotton planted in 2018/19, up 5% from last year, according to their recent producer survey. The weekly Export Sales report will be delayed until Friday due to Monday’s Holiday. Online cash sales for Tuesday reported on the Seam totaled 26,379 bales, as prices averaged 70.31 cents/lb, down 186 points from the previous day. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP), is 71.21 cents/lb, and will be updated later today per usual. The Cotlook A Index for January 17 was down 25 points from the previous day at 92.10 cents/lb.

Mar 18 Cotton is at 82.74, up 60 points,

May 18 Cotton is at 83.07, up 68 points

Jul 18 Cotton is at 83.26, up 66 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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