Morning Call: Stocks soar on U.S.-China trade optimism; Dec E-mini S&Ps up +0.71%; Dec WTI crude slumps -2.04% to a 9-month low on oversupply concerns.
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 ESZ18 - S&P 500 E-Mini

Overnight Markets and News

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ18 +0.67%) this morning are up +0.71% and European stocks are up +0.59% on optimism about progress on the U.S.-China trade dispute. U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He have resumed talks on trade and the South China Post reported a potential Washington visit by Liu He ahead of a meeting between the two countries' leaders set for the end of this month. European stocks also found support on an unexpected increase in German Oct ZEW investor sentiment. Dec WTI crude oil (CLZ18 -1.94%) slumped -2.04% to a 9-month low on oversupply concerns amid weak demand. In its monthly report, OPEC cut its 2019 global crude demand for OPEC crude to 31.5 million bpd, -500,000 bpd lower than its forecast in Sep and about 1.4 million bpd below current production. Crude prices were also under pressure after President Trump said crude "should be much lower based on supply." Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan -2.06%, Hong Kong +0.62%, China +0.93%, Taiwan -0.56%, Australia -1.80%, Singapore -0.47%, South Korea -0.69%, India +0.95%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index tumbled to a 2-week low as weakness in technology stocks led the market lower as supplies of Apple sold-off on signs of weak iPhone demand. China's Shanghai Composite erased early losses and moved higher on reports that trade talks with the U.S. have resumed. Chinese stocks also found support after weak Oct China credit growth data bolstered speculation the government will increase steps to boost economic growth after Oct China new yuan loans rose at the slowest pace this year.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.14%) is down -0.11%. EUR/USD ^EURUSD +0.37%) is up +0.29%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY +0.10%) is up +0.16%.

Dec 10-year T-note prices (ZNZ18 -0-030) are down -2.5 ticks.

The German Nov ZEW survey expectations of economic growth unexpectedly rose +0.6 to -24.1, stronger than expectations of -1.3 to -26.0.

ECB Chief Economist Praet said the plan to cap bond-buying at the end of this year "is not tantamount to a withdrawal of monetary policy accommodation," and "significant" stimulus is still needed to support inflation.

China Oct new yuan loans were 697 billion yuan, weaker than expectations of 904.5 billion yuan and the smallest in 10 months. Oct aggregate financing rose 728.8 billion yuan, weaker than expectations of 1.300 trillion yuan.

U.S. Stock Preview

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (non-voter) speaks at a regional economic conference on immigration, (2) Fed Governor Lael Brainard speaks about artificial intelligence and the new financial landscape at a fintech conference at the Philadelphia Fed, (3) Oct monthly budget statement (expected -$100.0 billion, Sep +$119.1 billion).

Notable Russell 1000 earnings reports today include: Macy's (consensus $0.14), Cisco Systems (0.72), NetApp (0.99).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Vapotherm (VAPO).

Equity conferences during the remainder of this week: UBS Global Technology Conference on Mon-Wed, Chrome Dev Summit 2018 on Mon-Wed, Edison Electric Institute Financial Conference on Tue, Needham Networking & Security Conference on Tue, eGain DX Conference on Tue, Morgan Stanley Consumer Conference on Tue, Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals Conference on Tue-Wed, Stifel Health Care Conference on Tue-Wed, Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference on Tue-Wed, RBC Technology, Internet, Media and Telecommunications Conference on Tue-Wed, Citi Financial Technology Conference on Tue-Wed, Credit Suisse Health Care Conference on Tue-Wed, JP Morgan Energy Technology Tour on Tue-Wed, Jefferies Health Care Conference on Wed, National Multifamily Housing Council OPTECH Conference on Wed, William Blair Benefit Technology Conference on Wed, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Energy Conference on Wed-Thu, Barclays Global Automotive Conference on Wed-Thu, Morgan Stanley European Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on Wed-Thu, Canaccord Genuity Medical Technologies and Diagnostics Forum on Thu, Deutsche Bank Lithium & Energy Storage Conference on Thu, Deutsche Bank Medtools & Diagnostics One-on-One Day on Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Future of Financials Conference on Fri.

Market Comments

Dec S&P 500 E-minis (ESZ18 +0.67%) this morning are up +19.25 points (+0.71%). Monday's closes: S&P 500 -1.97%, Dow Jones -2.32%, Nasdaq 100 -2.98%. The S&P 500 on Monday closed sharply lower on a sharp sell-off in technology stocks, led by a -5% drop in Apple to a 3-1/4 month low, on concern about weak holiday iPhone demand. U.S. stocks also saw negative carry-over from a slump in European stocks which fell to a 1-week low on concern about Italy's budget woes and dwindling hopes that UK Prime Minister May's Brexit plans will be able to pass through Parliament.

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ18 -0-030) this morning are down -2.5 ticks. Monday's closes: TYZ8 +8.50, FVZ8 +6.25. Dec 10-year T-notes on Monday rallied to a 1-week high and closed higher on increased safe-haven demand with the slump in stocks. There was also carry-over support from a rally in 10-year German bunds to a 1-week high on increased safe-haven demand from Italy's budget crisis.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.14%) this morning is down -0.105 (-0.11%), EUR/USD (^EURUSD +0.37%) is up +0.0032 (+0.29%), and USD/JPY (^USDJPY +0.10%) is up +0.18 (+0.16%). Monday's closes: Dollar Index +0.775 (+0.80%), EUR/USD -0.0118 (-1.04%), USD/JPY +0.01 (+0.01%). The dollar index on Monday climbed to a 16-month high and closed higher on the slump in EUR/USD to a 16-month low on Italian political risks as Italy has until Tuesday to send a fresh budget to the European Commission after its first draft was rejected. There was also weakness in GBP/USD which fell to a 1-week low on concern UK Prime Minster May might not be able to pass her Brexit plans through Parliament.

Metals prices this morning are mixed with Dec gold (GCZ18 -0.31%) -4.6 (-0.38%), Dec silver (SIZ18 +0.10%) -0.011 (-0.08%), and Dec copper (HGZ18 +1.51%) +0.035 (+1.29%). Dec Comex gold (GCZ18) on Monday closed down -$5.10 an ounce (-0.42%) and Dec Comex silver (SIZ18) closed down -0.129 (-0.91%). Dec Comex gold on Monday fell to a 1-month low and Dec silver tumbled to a 2-month low. The stronger dollar undercut metals prices after the dollar index on Monday jumped to a 16-month high. Hawkish comments from San Francisco Fed President Daly were also negative for metals when she said she expects a Fed rate hike next month and two more next year. Fund selling in metals has increased as well after long gold positions in ETFs fell to a 1-week low last Friday of 2131.54 MT and long silver positions held by ETFs fell to a 4-month low of 526.755 million troy ounces last Friday. Technical selling may pick up in gold after prices closed below the 100-day moving average Monday for a second session.

Dec WTI crude oil prices (CLZ18 -1.94%) this morning are down -$1.22 a barrel (-2.04%) at a 9-month low and Dec gasoline (RBZ18 -1.78%) is -3.12 (-1.91%) at a 13-month low. Dec WTI crude oil (CLZ18) on Monday closed down -$0.26 (-0.43%) per barrel and Jan Brent crude (CBF19) closed down -$0.06 (-0.09%). Dec RBOB gasoline (RBZ18) closed up +1.53 cents a gallon (+0.94%). Crude oil prices erased an early rally Monday and closed lower after the dollar index climbed to a 16-month high. Also, oversupply concerns remain after last Wednesday's EIA data showed U.S. crude production in the week ended Nov 2 rose to a record high of 11.6 million bpd, and last Friday's data from Baker Hughes signaled even higher U.S. crude output after active U.S. oil rigs jumped by +12 rigs in the week ended Nov 9 to a 3-1/2 year high of 886 rigs. A supportive factor Monday was the comment from Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih that OPEC+ needs to cut about 1 million bpd from Oct production levels to reduce oversupply concerns and that Saudi Arabia would cut production in December after a temporary increase in November. Gasoline prices gained after the crack spread rose to a 2-week high, which provides incentive for refiners to purchase crude oil to refine it into gasoline.

Overnight U.S. Stock Movers

Nvidia (NVDA -7.84%) was upgraded to 'Positive' from 'Neutral' at Susquehanna Financial with a price target of $230.

L Brands (LB +1.42%) was upgraded to 'Outperfrom' from 'Market Perform' at Wells Fargo Securities with a price target of $55.

Starbucks (SBUX -1.01%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Argus Research with a price target of $79.

Microchip Technology (MCHP -3.42%) was rated a new 'Market Perform' at BMO Capital Markets with a price target of $92.

Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -7.26%) fell 2% in after-hours trading after it was rated a new 'Underperform' at Leerink Partners LLC with a price target of $80.

UGI (UGI +0.87%) may initially open lower this morning when it forecast after the close of trading Monday full-year adjusted EPS of $2.75 to $2.95, the midpoint below consensus of $2.88.

Zogenix (ZGNX +0.34%) was imitated a new 'Outperform' at Leerink Partners LLC with a price target of $60.

Cree (CREE -4.49%) was rated a new 'Market Perform' at BMO Capital Markets with a price target of $55.

Aerie Pharmaceuticals (AERI -6.51%) was rated a new 'Outperform' at Oppenheimer with a price target of $64.

Eventbrite (EB -4.74%) tumbled more than 6% in after-hours trading after it reported a Q3 loss per share of -$1.24.

AmeriGas Partners LP (APU -0.62%) may initially open lower this morning when it forecast after the close of trading Monday that it sees full-year adjusted Ebitda of $610 million to $650 million, below consensus of $662.3 million.

ON Semiconductor (ON -5.87%) was rated a new 'Market Perform' at BMO Capital Markets with a price target of $20.

Medallion Financial (MFIN -3.98%) jumped 5% in after-hours trading after it reported total taxi-medallion loan exposure at the lowest level in 15 years.

EverQuote (EVER -5.70%) plunged almost 16% in after-hours trading after it forecast Q4 revenue of $37.4 million to $39 million, weaker than consensus of $39.2 million.