April 26

Corn futures at midday are trading around 3 cents higher, after being as much as 7 3/4 cents higher earlier in the day. After the close last night, the USDA showed the national planting progress was 30% completed, well ahead of the five year average of 16%. Progress in Illinois (42% finished), Iowa (40%), Minnesota (45%) and Missouri (81%) is sharply ahead of the five year average pace for each state. There was 5% of the national crop emerged as of Sunday night, just 1 point ahead of the average pace. Emergence in Missouri at 24% is 14 points ahead of the average pace. Chinese customs data showed ethanol imports more than doubling in March from February, with nearly all of the fuel from the United States. The average US export offer on Monday was $170/ton, $6/ton below the average Brazilian offer and $8/ton below the average Argentinean offer.

April 11th

Corn futures at midday are 5 to 6 cents lower, after being a couple cents lower this morning. There was 1.122 MMT of US corn inspected for export during the week ending April 7, per the USDA this morning. This was up 2.75% from the week before, and 30.6% larger than the same week a year ago. YTD inspections of 20.772 MMT as of last Thursday are now 14% smaller than the same period in 2014/15. We are definitely catching up to the USDA forecast. On the other hand, wheat is trying to get cheap enough to feed. The USDA Crop Progress report today is expected to have the first corn planting progress data, with the national progress estimated to be between 1 and 5%. The Friday night CFTC report showed that as of the close on Tuesday managed money speculators were 53,432 contracts more short than the previous week. This was in the aftermath of the March 31 USDA report. The net short position held as of Tuesday was 161,865 contracts.

April 10th

Soybean futures are trading 8 to 12 cents higher at midday, after being mostly 3 to 5 cents higher this morning. The weaker USD (-280 points) has helped the bean market this morning, with the Brazilian Real also rallying against the dollar (it is not part of the DXY). Export inspections during the week ending April 7 totaled 386,768 MMT, a week over week increase of 70.5%, but still 14% smaller than the same week in 2015. YTD inspections as of last Thursday totaled 42.033 MMT, still 7.3% behind the pace set during the 2014/15 marketing year. Managed money reduced their net long position by 1,709 contracts during the week ending April 5. The updated CFTC position held as of the close on Tuesday was 73,741 contracts net long.

May 10, 2016

After reading and studying this crop report Im a little lost for words. Who would have thought the USDA would drop the 2016 carryout on beans to 305 million bushels. (Oct 1, 2017) that is 100 million less than expected.

I would incourage farmers to think serios about contracted there wheat this fall. The report was bearish to corn and wheat. The only reason they are holding up in price is due to the 60 cent increase in  soybeans. That is my thought anyway. Harvest 2017 is a long ways away. I would also think with this report farmers will plant an additional 1 to 2 million acres more beans than corn if it works into there rotation. This would show up on the next month report and bring the bean carryout over 400 million. The carryout for this year was dropped from 425 to 400 million bushel. Randy